The dollar index rose 1.08 per cent during the Spring Festival, the biggest weekly gain in six months. The dollar index rose 0.06 per cent on February 8 to 96.6405, a seven-day high for more than a month, as traders rushed to buy the dollar to avoid danger, fearing the global economy would weaken. The euro still recorded its biggest Zhoudu drop against the dollar for more than four months, a factor that suggests the European slowdown is spreading. Global stock markets were mixed, with the euro zone performing worst. From February 1st to February 8th, the global stock index performed better than the US stocks in Japan and the euro zone, and the European market in the UK was stronger than the euro zone. The main reason was the continuous contradictions in the European market last week, the United Kingdom's Brexit, France's desire to fight evil, and Italy's lower growth expectations. The market has become more risk-averse.

Comparison of Changes in Global Major Stock Indices during the Spring Festival

During the Spring Festival of 2019, commodity prices were largely dominated by small declines, particularly in crude oil, amid concerns about a slowdown in world economic growth.
While there have been positive factors such as a recent OPEC cut and US sanctions on Venezuela, concerns about slowing global demand for crude oil in 2019 and the rapid expansion of US crude oil production capacity have continued to dominate, with WTI crude oil prices falling nearly 5 per cent during the Spring Festival.
Iron ore rose by 6.74 per cent during the Spring Festival, the highest among major commodities, as a result of the previous Vale accident, the cancellation of the Vale dam operating licence during the Spring Festival and the announcement of force majeure of some contracts.
Gold prices have begun to strengthen amid expectations that the Fed will stop raising interest rates and a growing number of countries are moving toward dollarization, with prices of precious metals such as Huangjinbaiyin, although slightly lower during the Spring Festival this year, having rebounded more sharply from the roughly 2 per cent drop recorded during the 2018 holiday.

III. Domestic Black Commodities
Stock is lower than the same period last year, the market is expected to have a good start. According to Mysteel inventory statistics, although the inventory of the five major varieties in the last week before the Spring Festival in 2019 was higher than in 2016, it was lower than in 2017 and 2018, especially spiral steel, and the total inventory was less than 1.22 million tons in the same period in 2018. Demand is better than it was in the same period last year, when output was higher than in the same period last year. The market still has great expectations for post-market demand.

In terms of specific prices, from the comparison of Myspicpugang's price index before and after the Spring Festival in previous years, there are 70 % of the probability that prices will rise and fall on the 15th before and after the last decade. Before the Spring Festival of 2019, the steel price index accumulated a slight increase of 0.4 %, and it is expected that there will be a large probability of a good start.

Note: Myspic Steel Relative Price Index July 31, 2000 = 100